To rain on immigration was once upon a time controversial in Norway. But after the first Brochmann-committee presented its report in 2011, is the resistance to calculate costs has been replaced with a strong concern over whether the welfare state can withstand a large immigration of low skills.
This concern is shared now by the central people in as well as all the parties in Norway.
A vulnerable model
The first Brochmann-selection from 2011 showed that in the Norwegian welfare regime is vulnerable. The selection came with the rather dramatic conclusion, that it is not “likely that the country’s velferdsregime will pass in their current form, if innvandringstakten continues to increase as it has done, especially the last 20 years, and with a predominance of people with low qualifications”.
There is reason to believe that this analysis will stand even stronger in the report that the committee put on the table in the morning, after the NRK understand.
the Reason pessimismen is the aging of the Norwegian population, fewer is to make the cake we need to share.
And that the politicians ‘ “fun-money” from its oil wealth now drying up.
the Proceeds from its oil wealth will no longer rise. Its oil wealth was at the end of 2016 less than the year before.
Trust and culture
Rekordtilstrømmingen of around 30,000 asylum seekers in the autumn of 2015, made their to that sociology professor Grete Brochmann fikt a new and expanded mission of the Government Solberg: The extent to which high immigration can affect the degree of cohesion and trust in Norway, and what is the significance of larger economic, social, cultural, and value inequality can have for the development of our society in the long term?
It is new in the mandate are the key words unity and confidence. No easy task to respond well, in other words.
Norway among those with the highest immigration
Something of the starting point for the discussion about how much immigration the Uk can withstand, is that Norway receives very many. Norway is among those countries within the OECD in relation to the population has had the highest immigration in the last 10 years. This stands for the NRK know in the committee’s report. The composition of the population is because of this been quite different.
But AS Norway is the most important thing is not how many, but who comes. The Norwegian welfare state has a whole buffet of rights for whoever gets a seat at the table: a Hundred per cent sick pay, free education, unemployment benefits, disability insurance. The series is long. This is the expensive arrangements which is given from those who are in work to those not working.
political scientist Christian Joppke says it this way: “Because rights are costly, they cannot be for everybody”.
Thus was then also the ban on immigration was introduced in 1975, and Norway with a large political majority tried to lead an asylum – and immigration policy that are meant to be string.
Immigrants must have a job
the Reason why the Norwegian welfare model is now coughing and hawking a little when it comes to immigration is simply that it assumes that immigrants, both refugees and labour immigrants, comes in the job.
Not only that; it assumes that immigrants will remain in the job and that the jobs they have gives a pretty high income.
There are therefore some challenges.
Immigrants have a lower; than the majority population. Especially immigrants with flyktningbakgrunn have problems in the Norwegian labour market. Under 60 per cent are in work.
It is a little more surprising is that the employment rate among refugees flattens out or goes back after 5 to 7 years of stay in Norway. One would expect that it was the opposite; that the employment increased the longer the period of residence. It is not so, according to the Frisch centre.
… and they need to be productive
These two points: Low employment, and that it may look like that a part falls out of the labour market after a short time, is bad news for the Norwegian model.
But a third points, is just as important. Said in a simple way so it’s not that the immigrants will remain in the job. They must also have jobs where they earn a lot, so that skatteinngangen to AS Norway remains high. Lavinntektsjobber threatening in this way also the Norwegian model.
the Ministry of finance is concerned that productivity growth per capita goes down. Much of this is due to immigration.
An additional challenge to get immigrants integrated in the Norwegian labour market is that they negotiated minstelønnene in Norway is high. It is the way we want it; small wage differentials.
But this is a challenge when immigrants with little expertise are out of jobs, simply because many do not have qualifications that justify a high salary.
But solution is probably not to lower the salary, then it can live on benefits could be seen as more alluring. And a risk that more will choose to live on benefits.
Fewer unskilled jobs
Immigrants without work or in lavinntektsjobber due, among other things, that more and more jobs in Norway require a high level of expertise. The unskilled jobs are fewer.
The only solution for Norway as a welfare state is to get adults low sholars people up on a level of skill where their labour is efficient enough to justify the creation of a Norwegian salary levels.
This is the challenge to the selection point on, after the NRK know.
But there are also bright spots. Up to several:
the Second-generation immigrants are to a much greater extent than their parents education, and they do it much better in the labour market.
And as a recently published FAFO report shows: it may look as if the second-generation takes to itself the Norwegian values in a greater extent than their parents, for example, the views on homosexuality.
What are the solutions to get more immigrants into well paying jobs coming selection? We don’t know. But shall we guess the answer is Qualification. Qualification. Qualification. Thus, to maintain the introduksjonsordningen where refugees receive tuition in the Norwegian language and social studies. Selection will probably make this scheme more geared toward the workplace.
That the workers get lønnstilskudd to hire immigrants with low skills is another idea that the committee likely will ask the authorities to develop further.
Support in the people?
The Norwegian welfare model means that the rich transfer the money to the less wealthy. This is basically a bold project that requires a large degree of support from the population.
If immigrants are not in work and contribute, will support in the long term, be less.
One can see for themselves a development where private market solutions pushing themselves forward. Perhaps in the longer term, the majority population demand that entitlements should be reserved for those who are born in Norway. This are the thoughts that are discussed in the report.
Fewer will be willing to support the idea of gradual salary harmonisation through the tax.
Parallellsamfunn can be the result
it All depends on how immigrants manage the integration. The establishment of parallellsamfunn, where their own rules apply and where the distance to the “Norwegian” increases, will probably at the same time decrease the willingness to continue the generous entitlements from the majority population.
the Development in Sweden, in cities such as Malmö, can give an indication of how it can go when the integration is not successful.
From being a country in which immigrants of the 1970s, and was told that it is important that you maintain their native language and maintain your own culture, has the pendulum swung in the other direction, in the direction of assimilation: a policy in which a minority is encouraged to be the most similar to the majority population.
Germany’s chancellor Angela Merkel has said it most clearly: Multikulturismen, where you can stand with one leg in the two cultures, could inhibit the integration.
in several countries In Europe, there is now a movement in the direction of to see the value of integration as a precondition for immigration to work.
Here, there is of course challenges, in relation to the rights of the individual to have their own opinions, culture, and attitudes for themselves.
it is exciting to see what the selection is going on this areas. They will move into the minefield rescue and go in for the national guidelines for solid garments, and generally argue that the value of integration is important for the host to want to maintain the Norwegian welfare model?
Brexit and Donald Trumps election victory in the united STATES have put populism and, not least, resistance to immigration, is on the agenda in european capitals. Much to suggest that immigration has been the central pivot point in the populismens growth in Europe, and Trumps election victory.
the Question is how far the range will go in the proposal to require a value commitment to Norwegian values, to obtain for example, citizenship.
This is the difficult landscape. The rights of the individual stands against what the majority population is willing to accept in terms of otherness.
After the NRK know, this has been some of the most difficult discussions in the committee. It is no wonder. Such a topic should be difficult.