This weekend gather Progress to congress at Gardermoen. The party has had to endure much hardship lately:
1. It has gone down long
When FRP gathered troops to congress in 2009, there was jubilation mood. One by one went delegates on the podium and proclaimed that Jensen would be the country’s next prime minister. The summer before he had several measurements shown in excess of 30 percent in the polls, and also in the spring, six years ago the Progressive Party with over 25 percent support in the polls.
FRP strategists talked about the possibility of a clean Frp- government.
Then it started to go downhill.
2011 was a terrible year for FRP, characterized by including Birkedal case, disclosure of Bård Hoksrud buying sex in Riga and mass killings 22. July, when it emerged that gjeningsmannen had been in FRP.
The party fell steeply in the polls, and has since until now not managed to rise back to previous levels.
2 . FRP got a new kink in autumn
In the authorized book about former SV leader Kristin Halvorsen she states:
– The lesson after the first budget presentation is that even modest cuts may cause deep wounds.
Seven years after fighting Audun Lysbakken party around the threshold of four percent.
Also Progress went on a bang when the first budget was presented in last October, and during the winter the party has settled at a considerably lower level, shows the average of the polls that are taken up.
– The decline of government began in earnest immediately after the presentation of the budget in 2014, writes Per Sandberg in a text message to Aftenposten after the Conservative Party’s national convention. The question is whether a new budget can provide a similar rally or not.
3. “Tull parties’ KrF and V equal size with FRP
Both Liberal leader Trine Skei Grande and KrF leader Knut Arild Hareide has been clear that their preferred government is one where Right sits with centrist parties.
With election results from 2013, however, it was not possible. FRP got 16.3 percent, while the Christian Democrats and the Liberals together received 10.8 percent.
“Small nonsense parties,” was the tag Progress mazyar keshvari put on the two partner parties.
After As time has passed, however, the distance between the FRP and “nonsense parties’ decreased considerably.
The cut of polls over the past year show that the Christian Democrats and the Liberals together now is roughly equal size with FRP. On several of Aftenposten measurements recent months the center has been greater than FRP.
The aspect ratio between the FRP and centrist followed closely throughout the bourgeois camp.
It’s not a given that Solberg choosing blåblå above teal government at the next crossroads of the blocks are as they appear in the polls today.
If this trend continues, it is not unnatural for centrist parties will come with even more vocal demands for acceptance – requirements that often go across the FRP voters want.
4. Less loyal voters
One of FRP – and all the other parties – major challenges is getting the voters who elected them last to choose the same party again. This graph shows that the Progress Party is struggling to convince FRP voters in 2013 to take the same ballot in the next election.
Just under 60 percent of the former Progress Party voters are asked to Aftenposten April measurement Response from saying they would vote FRP again if an election were held tomorrow.
With a low number of respondents in each group chooses the numbers are inaccurate, but last month was the Progress Party loyalty even lower percentage (52.6 percent).
5. Decline in both members and electoral lists
Siv Jensen says frankly that the first time a government has gone beyond the work of the party organization, and efforts to get the message.
The downturn seems well on membership numbers.
31. December 2014 had Progress 16,342 paying members. One year earlier the same number 18,894. The roughly 2,500 members who have left the party a decline of about 13 percent.
According to Bergens Tidende has FRP not had fewer members since 2001.
– It is important that we do not makeup situation, and are honest. Over the past year we have been forced to use a lot of resources and time on government project because it is new and we are in uncharted territory for the party. Meanwhile, we acknowledge a decline in membership. It is not dramatic. It stressed that all options, including the upcoming municipal elections, is about one thing: Stake, she tells BT.
At this fall’s election will slump also prove the number of electoral lists party fail to ask.
In county and municipal elections in 2015 sets Progress with 323 lists. There is a significant decrease of 33 municipalities from the last election in 2011.
6. Struggling in the cities
The autumn’s municipal elections will be an important run-up to parliamentary elections in 2017, and much of the spotlight will fall on the power struggle for the big cities.
Today FRP directing in five of Norway’s ten largest cities, but it is not certain that the result looks the same after the general election. Tromso look at current measurements appear to be colored red, and in Bergen bourgeois cooperation has been very much turbulence.
Aftenposten last Oslo measurement shows very weak figures for Progress.
It created a sensation that the FRP in this poll was less than both the Green Party and the Socialist Party in the capital, with only 6.2 percent.
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