– The trend in unemployment in recent months has been more positive than we expected. That number unemployed decreases mainly because several began in labor, but we also see that the number of new job seekers has declined slightly in recent months, said Labor and Welfare Director Sigrun Vågeng in a statement.
The seasonally adjusted unemployment fell by 680 people from May to June, according to latest figures from NAV.
Chief Economist Øystein Dørum DNB’m surprised the fall in unemployment. DNB has previously expected that unemployment would continue to increase as the oil industry continues to hold back on investment.
– I think this fits into a pattern where several figures suggest that the deterioration in the Norwegian economy has stalled, he says to Aftenposten.
DNB expects that unemployment will rise up to 2018, because they expect economic growth in Norway will be lower than normal, due to the oil industry will cut its investments over the next two years .
– But the Ministry of Finance and Statistics expects the unemployment peak is passed this year. With the development we see now, it may seem that our forecasts may be a little too negative, Dørum says.
The top reached?
Also chief economist Harald Magnus Andreassen at First Securities believes the numbers are encouraging .
– This is surprisingly good numbers. There is still a slight increase in unemployment if you include those on labor, but it increases slowly. Unemployment in the “oil country” has leveled off, and it falls clearly in the rest of the country. This is much better than what I expected for a half ago, he said.
– Do you think we have passed the unemployment peak?
– The only thing that makes me uncertain, the proportion of the adults who are employed, are falling. It is the weak point, but everything else goes really better ennn I thought, he said.
Minister anniken hauglie stresses that the labor market will continue to be challenging in the future.
– There are early to fresh sign the labor market, but I am pleased that unemployment has slowed up, she says to VG.
Dørum points to several “shock absorbers” in the labor market which contributes to reducing growth in unemployment. People can move to another part of the country, study, or move out of the country and thus leaving the labor market entirely.
– Last year traveled more Swedes and Danes out of the land than it entered for the first time in 10 year, and labor migration from Poland was halved. It also helps to keep unemployment down, he said.
More unemployed engineers
Unemployment among engineers, IT people and industrial workers was unchanged in June, after several months of recovery.
There are now 2,000 more unemployed with a background in engineering and ICT subjects than in June last year, representing an increase of 35 percent.
over the past year, unemployment has declined most for teaching professions and child and youth work, with respectively 6 and 4 percent.
Worried Western Norway
Rogaland and Østfold had the largest percentage increase in unemployment, while Telemark and Nord-Trøndelag had the largest decline.
Parliament Truls Wickholm in Labor is concerned about the high unemployment figures in the most vulnerable parts of the country.
– the figures confirm, unfortunately, that unemployment is about to establish itself on a record level. We were concerned last year when we saw rising vacancy rates in Southern and Western Norway. Since then, unemployment has increased by 40prosent in Rogaland, he writes in a pressemelding.Ved end of June, 81,000 people were registered as unemployed at Nav. There are 3,700 more than a year ago. Unemployment is now at 2.9 percent of the workforce, compared with 2.8 percent in June last year.
Here is the Norwegian unemployment spread
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