– Militant Islamist groups still represent the greatest threat to Norway, said the chief of the Intelligence Service, Lieutenant General Kjell Grandhagen when he Thursday presented service unclassified threat assessment FOCUS 2015 in Oslo.
According Grandhagen there are now three areas in particular as the Norwegian side are followed with great concern:
Three areas
– Firstly, I would emphasize developments in Russia in light of the annexation of the Crimean peninsula and support for separatists in East -Ukraina.
– Second I’ll point to developments in the Middle East and North Africa, where militant Islamist groups have taken control of large areas of land, which fundamental has changed terrorist threat against Western countries.
– Thirdly, I will emphasize developments in the digital space, where networked intelligence operations emerge as an increasingly serious threat to Norway and Norwegian interests, said Grandhagen.
Fear IS
The most immediate threat to Norway and Norwegian interests abroad, it is militant Islamists who constitute, he stressed, and placed particular emphasis on the rebel group the Islamic state (IS).
– In the short term it will be difficult to fight them in Iraq and Syria, admitted Grandhagen.
The intelligence service fears that the IS-controlled areas are a haven that can be used for training and base of terrorist attacks against Europe.
Intelligence Service looks also with great concern the chaos and anarchy that prevails in Libya, three years after the rebels with air support from Norway and other NATO countries overthrew Muammar Gaddafi’s regime.
– Libya is about to evolve into a hotbed for organizations like al-Qaeda and the IS and export instability, he said.
Foreseeing not
To predict the future is, however, a difficult exercise. In last year’s threat assessment foresaw Intelligence Service and not the possible consequences of Ukraine’s former president Viktor Yanukovych in 2013 refused to sign the free trade agreement with the EU and instead turned against Russia.
This got the snowball to start rolling in Ukraine, where Yanukovych few months later was allocated to western cheers and pro-Russian separatists responded by declaring independence and ask Russia to annex the area.
Prorussiske separatists has since expanded conflict to eastern Ukraine, where the Russian support has taken control of several areas.
Missed in the Middle East
Intelligence Service foresaw nor how deep Sunni minority dissatisfaction was with the Western-backed regime in Baghdad, which contributed to the great support for the rebel group The Islamic state (IS) within a few months took control of large areas in Iraq and Syria.
IS, and the influx of foreign fighters to the rebel movement, is currently seen as one of the biggest security challenges the world and Norway faces.
Referred not
The government response to the threat is to go active in the US-led war against IS by sending troops to Iraq, but this will increase the security threat from returnees IS warriors, go Intelligence Service not enter in the threat assessment that was submitted on Thursday.
The fact that Norway’s former prime minister has taken over as Secretary General of NATO, and now defense alliance face, nor is referred to as a safety risk for Norway and Norwegian interests abroad.
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